Sussex voting intentions: what a recent poll could mean for the 2026 mayoral race

A recent YouGov MRP poll, modelling how people might vote if a general election were held tomorrow, has sent shockwaves through the UK’s political landscape.

With Reform UK projected to become the largest party in Westminster, the poll suggests a dramatic redrawing of the political map, and Sussex would not be immune.

While national headlines have focused on Reform’s possible 311-seat haul in the House of Commons, just short of a majority, the regional picture offers a more granular insight into what could happen next year in the first ever Sussex and Brighton mayoral election.

⚠️ Context matters

Let’s be clear - this is a snapshot of national sentiment, not a local mayoral poll. It’s speculative, and based on a scenario in which the current political turbulence continues unchecked. But as a temperature check of voter discontent, it raises questions about what kind of message Sussex residents want to send, and what kind of leader they’re looking for.

🧭 Sussex’s projected general election results (per YouGov MRP):

• Reform UK win in:

  ▪️ Crawley
  

  ▪️ Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

  ▪️ Worthing West
  ▪️ East Worthing and Shoreham
  ▪️ Bexhill and Battle
  ▪️ Hastings and Rye
  ▪️ Sussex Weald

• Liberal Democrats win in:
  ▪️ Chichester
  ▪️ Mid Sussex
  ▪️ Lewes
  ▪️ Horsham
  ▪️ Eastbourne

• Labour win in:
  ▪️ Hove and Portslade
  ▪️ Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven

• Conservatives hold:
  ▪️ Arundel and South Downs
  ▪️ East Grinstead and Uckfield

• Greens win:
  ▪️ Brighton Pavilion

With Reform projected to take seven out of 17 Sussex parliamentary constituencies, many in traditional Labour and Conservative heartlands, it’s clear that voter volatility is high.

🧠 What might this mean for the mayoral race?

Unlike a general election, the Sussex and Brighton mayor will be chosen in a direct, county-wide vote. That means every voter has the same weight; no safe seats.

If current trends hold:

• Reform UK could perform strongly in coastal areas and towns with long-standing economic grievances.

• The Liberal Democrats and Greens might consolidate their footholds in mid-Sussex and Brighton.

• Labour’s position in urban centres like Hove could help them build momentum, but the threat from Reform can’t be ignored.

💡 Caveats, caveats, caveats

Turnout will matter. Mayoral elections tend to be low-turnout affairs, meaning ground game, trust, and candidate recognition will be key.

This poll also doesn’t factor in:

• Any changes to national parties' leadership or credibility

• Tactical voting coalitions that may form to block any particular party winning

• The effects of a focused local campaign with visible candidates and clear regional priorities

🤔 So what?

The mayoral election will not be seen as a sideshow, nationally. Eyes will be on the contest as a sign of things to come. It could be the clearest test of whether Sussex wants to double down on change or build from the centre.

Either way, every party, and every candidate, will need to be fluent in the local nuances of Bognor and Brighton, Eastbourne and East Grinstead.

And if this polling holds up? The Sussex mayoral race is going to be very unpredictable.

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